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Tag Archives: Intelligence Assessment


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The “German Plot”

On Friday, May 17, 1918, the British government orders the arrest and imprisonment of all leading members of Sinn Féin, claiming they were involved in a plan to import arms from Germany. The British cover for these arrests is a bogus “German Plot,” which has since been thoroughly discredited.

The “German Plot” is a spurious conspiracy that the Dublin Castle administration in Ireland claims to exist between the Sinn Féin movement and the German Empire in May 1918. Allegedly, the two factions conspire to start an armed insurrection in Ireland during World War I, which would divert the British war effort. The administration uses these claims to justify the internment of Sinn Féin leaders, who are actively opposing attempts to introduce conscription in Ireland and more Irishmen being used as cannon fodder in service to their oppressors.

The “plot” originates on April 12 when the British arrest Joseph Dowling after he is put ashore in County Clare by a German U-boat. Dowling is a member of the Irish Brigade, one of several schemes by Roger Casement to get German assistance for the 1916 Easter Rising. Dowling now claims that the Germans are planning a military expedition to Ireland. William Reginald Hall and Basil Thomson believe him and convince the authorities to intern all Sinn Féin leaders. One hundred fifty are arrested on the night of May 17–18 and taken to prisons in England, including Éamon de Valera, Arthur Griffith, Constance Markievicz and W. T. Cosgrave. The introduction of internment and conscription reflects a decision of the British cabinet to take a harder line on the Irish Question following the failure of the Irish Convention.

Historian Paul McMahon characterises the “Plot” as “a striking illustration of the apparent manipulation of intelligence in order to prod the Irish authorities into more forceful action.” Republicans are tipped off about the impending arrests, allowing some to escape capture while others choose to be taken in order to secure a propaganda victory. The internment is counterproductive for the British, imprisoning the more accommodating Sinn Féin leadership while failing to capture members of the Irish Republican Brotherhood who are more committed to physical force republicanism.

The British live to regret one man who slips through their fingers that spring. Michael Collins uses the months he might have spent in an English prison assembling and consolidating his control of an intelligence organisation and putting it on a more focused military footing that soon makes the Empire squeal.

Even at the time, the proposition that the Sinn Féin leadership are directly planning with the German authorities to open another military front in Ireland is largely seen as spurious. Irish nationalists generally view the “German Plot” not as an intelligence failure but as a black propaganda project to discredit the Sinn Féin movement, particularly to an uninformed public in the United States. McMahon comments that this belief is mistaken, and that the authorities acted honestly but on the basis of faulty intelligence. It is still a matter of study and conjecture what impact it had on U.S. foreign policy regarding the 1919 bid for international recognition of the Irish Republic.

(Pictured: Dublin Castle, Dame Street, Dublin)


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RAF Chinook Helicopter Crash on Mull of Kintyre

1994-chinook-crash-memorialA Chinook helicopter of the Royal Air Force (RAF) crashes on the Mull of Kintyre, Scotland, in foggy conditions on June 2, 1994. The crash results in the deaths of all twenty-five passengers and four crew on board. Among the passengers are almost all the United Kingdom‘s senior Northern Ireland intelligence experts who are travelling from Belfast to a security conference in Inverness. The accident is the RAF’s worst peacetime disaster.

Earlier in the day, the helicopter and crew carry out a trooping flight, as it is considered to be unsafe for British troops to move around in certain parts of Northern Ireland using surface transport at the time due to the threat posed by Provisional Irish Republican Army attacks. This mission is safely accomplished and they return to Joint Helicopter Command Flying Station Aldergrove at 3:20 PM. The helicopter takes off for Inverness at 5:42 PM. Weather en route is forecast to be clear except in the Mull of Kintyre area. The crew makes contact with military air traffic control (ATC) in Scotland at 5:55 PM.

Around 6:00 PM, the helicopter flies into a hillside in dense fog. The pilots are Flight Lieutenants Jonathan Tapper, 28, and Richard Cook, 30, both United Kingdom Special Forces pilots. There are two other crew. The helicopter is carrying 25 British intelligence experts from MI5, the Royal Ulster Constabulary and the British Army, from RAF Aldergrove (outside Belfast, Northern Ireland) to attend a conference at Fort George, near Inverness, Scotland. At the time of the accident Air Chief Marshal Sir William Wratten calls it “the largest peacetime tragedy the RAF had suffered.”

In the immediate aftermath of the accident, one commentator states that the loss of so many top level Northern Ireland intelligence officers in one stroke is a huge blow to the John Major government, “temporarily confounding” its campaign against the IRA. That the crash kills so many British intelligence experts, without any witnesses in the foggy conditions, leads to considerable speculation and conspiracy theories being devised on the issue on the potential of a cover-up having been performed. Among these are accusations that wake turbulence from a top-secret hypersonic U.S. aircraft had been responsible for the crash, while another postulates that it is a deliberate assassination of the intelligence operatives on board in connection with the then on-going Northern Ireland peace process.

In 1995, an RAF board of inquiry rules that it is impossible to establish the exact cause of the accident. This ruling is subsequently overturned by two senior reviewing officers, who state the pilots were guilty of gross negligence for flying too fast and too low in thick fog. This finding proves to be controversial, especially in light of irregularities and technical issues surrounding the then-new Chinook HC.2 variant which were uncovered. A Parliamentary inquiry conducted in 2001 finds the previous verdict of gross negligence on the part of the crew to be “unjustified.” In 2011, an independent review of the crash clears the crew of negligence.

(Pictured: Memorial on Mull of Kintyre, Scotland to the crash victims of the 1994 RAF Chinook crash)